Sethi Associates

  Daily Summary – April 30, 2021 - April Goes Out with A Whimper US equity indices ended the week (and month) on a down note with SPX, NDX, Naz, and RUT all down at least seven tenths (RUT down a little more than the others, -1.26%) giving them all down weeks, although all very mildly (SPX actually only finished down 4 points).  All had solid April's though led by the SPX's gain of almost 5%. The weekly losses were despite large speculators apparently adding quite a bit of exposure. Pretty even in terms of growth versus value but definitely a bias to large caps as noted. And this week's mild losses were despite a huge week of earnings that not only saw historically high beats but also one in five companies raising guidance. Which have Credit Suisse and BoA upping earnings targets (CS to $200 in 2021 WITH a 25% corporate tax rate). But at some point earnings needed to catch up to stock prices (it was a very positive month after all) so a week like this (earnings up stocks fl

US Personal Income Mar: 21.1% (est 20.2%; prevR -7.0%; prev -7.1%) US Personal Spending Mar: 4.2% (est 4.1%; prev -1.0%) US Real Personal Spending Mar: 3.6% (est 3.7%; prev -1.2%) US PCE Deflator (M/M) Mar: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.2%) US PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Mar: 2.3% (est 2.3%; prev 1.6%) US PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Mar: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%) US PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Mar: 1.8% (est 1.8%; prev 1.4%) As anticipated last month, March personal income comes in with a massive number. The big question was how much of it got spent, and it looks like about what was expected leading to a huge savings rate. I'll go through each piece independently, but overall a very bullish report. Table at the end. Personal Income Fueled by the second round of stimulus payments and increased benefits, income ripped up over 20% m/m.   Wages and salaries did increase also, up 1%, and proprietor's income was up a very solid 6.2% so wasn't all just government benefits.  But those were up 95% so

  As we approach the open... - 4/30/21 As we approach the open of US equity trading, we are finally getting a little bit of that weakness I was anticipating for this week with indices solidly in the red led to the downside by small caps with the RUT indicated to open down little more than one percent, NDX eight tenths, and SPX six tenths.  NDX weakness is despite AMZN completing the "five-fecta" (my made up term) of revenue and earnings beats from the Big 5, smashing EPS estimates (and trading up this morning, although according to Investopedia might want to watch the next few weeks).   In earnings news:  Amazon (AMZN 3556 .80, +85.49): +2.5% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding Q2 revenue above consensus. Chevron (CVX 104.24, -2.66): -2.5% as revenues missed (EPS in line). AbbVie (ABBV 112.00, +1.11): +1.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and raising its FY21 EPS guidance to in-line with consensus estimates. Twitter (TWTR 57.10, -7.99): -12.3%

 Daily Summary – April 29, 2021 - Large Caps Back In Front US equity indices hit their highs of the day at the open and steadily retreated until just after noon when they they staged a "v" recovery (at least the large caps) to push back to end near the highs.  Haven't had a day like this in a while for the SPX. RUT was more like a checkmark only getting back about half of its starting point as small growth was a notable laggard. The result was the SPX leading (first day in a while) up almost seven tenths, NDX up about half percent, Naz little under quarter percent, and RUT finished red down almost four tenths.  And a style box that again leaned left and also to the top with large growth leading and large core (where Apple is housed) just behind.  Large growth lagging is notable following the amazing earnings we've had last two days from MSFT, GOOG, and FB. And AMZN keeps the large growth earnings beats going absolutely crushing EPS estimates. Coming into this morning