Sethi Associates

US Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity Oct: 31 (est 20; prev 22) 10_2021_KC_Survey_Manuf.pdf (kansascityfed.org) After declining from 29 to 22 in September, KC Fed manufacturing survey bounced back in October to 30 with expectations for future production remaining near 20 year highs. P roduction, shipments, new orders, and employment  all on net increased, while prices and delivery times continued to hit new survey highs. Here was the commentary from Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. “Regional factory activity rose further,” said Wilkerson. “Production and employment have continued to increase. However, more firms reported additional price increases and delivery time delays. Most contacts expected supply chain issues to be resolved within the next 6 to 12 months, but 36% of firms expected these issues to persist for more than 12 months.” Here's the commentary from the report: Tenth District manufacturing growth edged higher, and

 Neil's Evening Summary – October 29, 2021 - More New Highs Please excuse typos.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). A small glossary.  Feel free to inquire about any other terms used.  SPX = S&P 500  Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks)  DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)) MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like) __________________________________________________________________ After a strong day yesterday

US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Oct F: 71.7 (est 71.4; prev 71.4) - Current Conditions: 77.7 (est 77.9; prev 77.9) - Expectations: 67.9 (est 67.2; prev 67.2) - 1-Year Inflation: 4.8% (est 4.8%; prev 4.8%) - 5-10 Year Inflation: 2.9% (prev 2.8%) Surveys of Consumers (umich.edu) University of Michigan's final estimate of October consumer sentiment came in pretty much in line with the near 9-year lows originally reported.  The overall index ticked up to 71.7 from initial estimate of 71.4 which was down from 72.8 in September.  Future expectations, which fell from 79 to 65 in August, and improved to 68.1 in September, fell back to 67.2 in the first estimate and improved just to 67.9 in the final estimate, the second-lowest reading in a decade (after August).  Current conditions, which fell from 84.5 to 78.5 in August, and improved to 80.1 in September, fell back to 77.9 in the first estimate and fell a little further to 77.7 in the final estimate, the lowest since April 2020.  These com

US Personal Income Sep: -1.0% (est -0.3%; prev 0.2%; prevR 1.0%) - Personal Spending Sep: 0.6% (est 0.6%; prev 0.8%) - Real Personal Spending Sep: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.4%) US PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Sep: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%) - PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Sep: 3.6% (est 3.7%; prev 3.6%) - PCE Deflator (M/M) Sep: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.4%) - PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Sep: 4.4% (est 4.4%; prev 4.3%) US Employment Cost Index Q3: 1.3% (est 0.9%; prev 0.7%) pi0921.pdf (bea.gov) After July's very solid +1.1% m/m and August's +0.2% gain, personal income fell in September as we hit the "cliff" of pandemic benefits expiring, falling -1.0%, more than expectations for a fall of -0.3% (all changes m/m unless noted). Specifically there was a -7% decrease in transfer payments. Continued gains from wages couldn't keep up. Of course those are nominal numbers, and inflation did continue to take a bite, at +0.3% m/m headline (one tenth lower than August and July) and +0.2% core (als

 Neil's Morning Summary - 10/29/21 Please excuse typos.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). A small glossary.   SPX = S&P 500 Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks) DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)). MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like) BBG = Bloomberg WSJ = Wall Street Journal _______________________________________________________________________ As we approach the open of equity trade in NY, global eq