Sethi Associates

US CB Consumer Confidence Aug: 113.8 (est 123.0; prev 129.1) After the "cratering" we saw in UofM the Conference Board consumer confidence index was also weak but stayed well above the pandemic lows.  The headline fell by around 12 points to 113.8 with the present situation falling by 10 points to 147.3 and the expectations index falling by 12 points to 91.4.  Cutoff date was August 25th.  Same issues as UofM noted (Delta variant and inflation) were seen here.  Positively, current labor market conditions remained very strong. From the report: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August, following a decrease in July (a downward revision). The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), down from 125.1 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 147.3 from 157.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market condition

 US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City SA (M/M) Jun: 1.77% (est 1.80%; prev 1.81%) US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City NSA (Y/Y) Jun: 19.08% (est 18.60%; prevR 17.14%; prev 16.99%) US S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller HPI NSA (Y/Y) Jun: 18.61% (prevR 16.78%; prev 16.61%) Decided to go ahead and do some more detail on the home price reports.  As noted in the morning update home prices continued their rapid, nearly parabolic, increase on a y/y basis although they did moderate a bit m/m but still posted very strong increases in both reports.  All surveyed cities increased.   Here was commentary from the US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller: “June 2021 is the third consecutive month in which the growth rate of housing prices set a record, says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index marked its thirteenth consecutive month of accelerating prices with an 18.6% gain from year-ago levels, up from 16.8

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: +9 vs. +25 consensus and +27.3 prior. August Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (for Texas region) comes in similar to other Fed surveys other than Richmond, well under expectations and the July read, but still firmly in positive territory.  In the case of Texas, new orders and shipments drove most of the decline with those indicators falling by double digits (although still coming in well above survey historical averages).  Based on the comments and the fact that backlogs edged up, it sounds like despite orders falling there is more than enough business.  It is servicing that business that is the issue.  In that regard prices and wages remained very high.  But the capacity constraints and high prices did result in outlooks falling by double digits both for current conditions and six months out.  They did remain as did the other indicators firmly in positive territory.  Full table at the end.  Here was the commentary from the report: Texas factory activity

As We Approach The Open... - 8/31/21 Please excuse typos (there was a lot to get through this morning so I'm sure there are some). As we approach the open of US equity trade in NY, risk assets trade mixed with US equity markets trading down mildly but RUT, SPX, and NDX all trade down between flat and around one tenth.   And remember our summer caveat: One thing to keep in mind is after July 4th until around Labor Day, there is significantly less liquidity in the markets due to vacations, etc., so we can get more whippy action and "overshoots" in all markets.  More true this week than most as vacation schedules are at the peak. In today's U.S. corporate news: Zoom Video (ZM 305.50, -42.00): -12.1% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates, guiding fiscal Q3 revenue above consensus, and guiding FY22 EPS/revenue above consensus. Quarterly guidance was mixed. Moderna (MRNA 375.99, +5.30): +1.4% after a ne w study showed Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine creates twice as

Daily Summary – August 30, 2021 - A Mixed Bag Please excuse typos.   After Friday's broad move higher in which most all stocks participated to some degree, the market returned to the "either/or" which we had escaped the last few days but which otherwise has characterized most of the past 12 months.  It's "either" those large growth names typified by the FAANG stocks doing well "or" everything else.  Today it was the former which pushed the SPX (+0.43%), NDX (+1.12%) and Nasdaq (+0.9%) to new record highs while value stocks and small caps fell, with the RUT down a half percent.  It's likely 10-year yields falling back to Tuesday's levels and crude coming off a bit were at least in part to blame for the cyclical weakness. Style box favoring large caps and growth.   As Mike Wilson continues to call for a 10% correction.  While he's not the only one, I do have a tendency to pay attention to what Mike says because he's made a number of c