US CB Consumer Confidence Aug: 113.8 (est 123.0; prev 129.1) - August CB confidence report pulls back but not as much as UofM

US CB Consumer Confidence Aug: 113.8 (est 123.0; prev 129.1)

After the "cratering" we saw in UofM the Conference Board consumer confidence index was also weak but stayed well above the pandemic lows.  The headline fell by around 12 points to 113.8 with the present situation falling by 10 points to 147.3 and the expectations index falling by 12 points to 91.4.  Cutoff date was August 25th.  Same issues as UofM noted (Delta variant and inflation) were seen here.  Positively, current labor market conditions remained very strong.

From the report:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August, following a decrease in July (a downward revision). The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), down from 125.1 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 147.3 from 157.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 91.4 from 103.8.

“Consumer confidence retreated in August to its lowest level since February 2021 (95.2),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Concerns about the Delta variant—and, to a lesser degree, rising gas and food prices—resulted in a less favorable view of current economic conditions and short-term growth prospects. Spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all cooled somewhat; however, the percentage of consumers intending to take a vacation in the next six months continued to climb. While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.

Present Situation

Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions declined in August.

• 19.9% of consumers said business conditions are “good,” down from 24.6%.
• 24.0% of consumers said business conditions are “bad,” up from 20.0%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market eased.

• 54.6% of consumers said jobs are “plentiful,” down from 55.2%.
• 11.8% of consumers said jobs are “hard to get,” up from 11.1%.

Expectations Six Month Hence

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook deteriorated in August.

• 22.9% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, down from 30.9%.
• 17.8% expect business conditions to worsen, up from 11.9%.

Consumers were somewhat less optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.

• 23.0% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, down from 25.5%.
• 18.6% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 17.8%.

Consumers were less upbeat about their short-term financial prospects.

• 17.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 20.0%.
• 10.1% expect their incomes will decrease, up from 8.8%.
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