Sethi Associates

 Neil's Evening Summary – November 29, 2021 - We Got A Bounce, Now What? Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). A small glossary.  Feel free to inquire about any other terms used.  SPX = S&P 500  Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks)  DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)) MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what i...

US Dallas Fed Mfg Activity Nov: 11.8 (est 15.0; prev 14.6)  Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Dallasfed.org After bouncing back in October from big drops in August and September the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Survey headline general activity index slipped back in November by -2.8 points to 11.8 from 14.6 in October (but up from 4.6 in September).  As a reminder that "headline" number is the regional number which I think is less relevant than the firm specific number, which also slipped to just above 0 at 1.3 from 2.4 in October.  That said, the individual components continue to look very solid with increases in new orders, shipments, wages, and employment (all of which are well into the double digits).  Production, which is what the Dallas Fed focuses on (that's what's in the chart above) increased by a 9.1 points to 27.4.  Prices paid also increased though to back over 80 (to a record high). Backlogs (17.4) and capital expenditures (10.5) fell, but both ...

US Pending Home Sales (M/M) Oct: 7.5% (est 1.0%; prev R -2.4%) Pending Home Sales Jump 7.5% in October (nar.realtor) Pending home sales (which are contract signings not actual transactions so a little more forward looking), which unexpectedly fell back in September after a big increase in August again jumped in October up 7.5% m/m.  While below the record highs of late 2020 (down -1.4% y/y) that is a very strong performance given the unusual strength of the market at the end of last year.  They also remain well above pre-pandemic levels, and the full year is on pace for the strongest in at least 15 years.   As this is contract signings, this will later filter through to existing home sales (normally in around two months).  All regions saw m/m increases (and two were up y/y despite almost impossible comps).   Here is some commentary from the report which focused on the strength of the market. "Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase ...

 Neil's Morning Update - 11/29/21 Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). Remember, this is a free blog I put out to try to help people get information, so keep that in mind. A small glossary.   SPX = S&P 500 Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks) DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)). MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = 14-day Relative Strength Index (basically wh...