Sethi Associates

  US Advanced Goods Trade Balance Nov: -97.8B (est -$89.0B; prev -$83.2B) US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Nov P: 1.2% (est 1.8%; prev 2.3%) - Retail Inventories ex-auto (M/M) Nov: 2.0% (prev 0.5%) Advance Economic Indicators Report - November 2021 (census.gov) Quick update on the advanced indicators report for October which summarizes first look at imports, exports, and inventories.  All numbers m/m unless otherwise noted. Exports - After falling by a big -4.7% in September and bouncing back strongly +10.7% in October as all categories were up solidly, November continued the back and forth falling -2.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis as all areas declined other than food and beverages.  Exports are up 22.2% y/y. Imports - After increasing +0.8% in October (revised up from +0.5%), +0.9% in September, and +1.0% in August, imports jumped to +4.7% in November.  Industrial supplies (+10.0% led the increase with all categories gaining m/m.  Imports are up 19.1% y/y. Fu...

  US Pending Home Sales (M/M) Nov: -2.2% (est 0.6%; prev 7.5%) Pending Home Sales Subside 2.2% in November (nar.realtor) Pending home sales (which are contract signings not actual transactions so a little more forward looking), which had flipped between big gains and smaller pullbacks the past three months, continued with a -2.2% decline in November following October's huge +7.5% gain.  This was below analysts estimates for a +0.6% gain (although analysts haven't been close the past few months so no surprise there).  This puts them down -2.7% y/y, but that is still a very strong performance given the unusual strength of the market at the end of last year.  They also remain well above pre-pandemic levels, and the full year is on pace for the strongest in at least 15 years.   As this is contract signings, this will later filter through to existing home sales (normally in around two months).  All regions saw m/m decreases.   Here is some comment...

Neil's Morning Update - 12/29/21 Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). As are reminder, this is a free blog I put out to try to help people get information, so no editors, etc. A small glossary.   SPX = S&P 500 Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks) DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)). MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = 14-day Relative Strength Index (basically wha...

 Neil's Evening Summary – December 28, 2021 - Santa Takes A Breather Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). A small glossary.  Feel free to inquire about any other terms used.  SPX = S&P 500  Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks)  DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)) MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what it so...

Home prices continued to remain elevated y/y although softening some from record highs.  They also continue to show signs of decelerating m/m although there was a bit of discrepancy which we didn't have last month when m/m gains fell for both surveys.  This month, HPI fell but the FHFA jumped up two tenths.  It remains though below the highs of the summer.  I think this remains consistent with us being past peak home price growth.   US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller   HPI Composite: - 20 City (S.A.) +0.9% M/M vs. +1.0% consensus, +1.0% prior. HPI Composite: - 20 City (N.S.A.) +0.8% M/M vs. +1.0% consensus, +0.8% prior. HPI Composite (N.S.A.) - 20-City +18.4% Y/Y vs. +18.6% consensus, +19.1% prior. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.1% Annual Home Price Gain in October - Index Announcements | S&P Dow Jones Indices (spglobal.com) S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) survey (I know it's a mouthful) for October (so a...