US Housing Starts Jan 1.580 Mln (est 1.658 Mln; prevR 1.680 Mln; prev 1.669 Mln); US Building Permits Jan 1.881 Mln (est 1.678 Mln; prevR 1.704 Mln; prev 1.709 Mln)

US Housing Starts Jan 1.580 Mln (est 1.658 Mln; prevR 1.680 Mln; prev 1.669 Mln)

US Building Permits Jan 1.881 Mln (est 1.678 Mln; prevR 1.704 Mln; prev 1.709 Mln)



Beat in permits but miss in starts which was driven by pullback on the single-family side as noted below, so some definite softening in starts last month (but forward indicator permits remains strong, and note that single-family starts and permits both remain up strongly y/y (17.5% and 22.5% respectively) so any talk about this meaning the top is in for homebuilders, etc., is definitely premature).

Starts



Starts pulled back 6% on a seasonally adjusted basis, and also are are down y/y by 2.3%,  The m/m decline led by single-family which pulled back by 12.2%, but, importantly, these remain up by 17.5% y/y. Multi-family (MF) was up by 16.2% m/m. Y/y though down by -35%. Full breakdown below but NE only region to be up SF with huge cratering in Midwest (weather?). On y/y basis 




Permits

As noted nice beat from permits driven by MF (+28%) but SF also up a solid 3.8%.  SF is now up 22.5%(!) y/y, MF 7.9%. Full details below but On the SF side all regions up led by the NE while total only region down was MW by less than 1% (NE huge 39% m/m increase).  On Y/Y basis all regions and types are up strongly.












Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Advanced indicators report for September - Big falloff in exports, imports up, inventories increase ex-autos - Neil's Summary

Image
US Advanced Goods Trade Balance Sep: -$96.3B (est -$88.3B; prev -$87.6B; prevR -$88.2B) US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Sep P: 1.1% (est 1.0%; prev 1.2%) - Retail Inventories (M/M) Sep: -0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.1%; prevR 0.2%) Advance Economic Indicators Report - September 2021 (census.gov) Quick update on the advanced indicators report for September which summarizes first look at imports, exports, and inventories.   Exports - After increasing +0.8% m/m (all numbers m/m unless otherwise noted) on a seasonally adjusted basis in August (revised up from +0.7%) on the back of industrial supplies (+6.6%) and consumer goods (+1.6%), September exports fell by a big -4.7% as all categories other than consumer goods (+4.2%) fell, led by a reversal in last month's leader, industrial supplies (-9.9%) and capital goods (-3.6%).  Exports are up 16.8% y/y. Imports - After increasing +1.0% in August (revised up from +0.8%) led by industrial supplies (+3.6%) and consumer goods (+4.9%), imp...
Read more

Daily Summary – June 8, 2021 - Small Caps Breaking Out?

Image
 Daily Summary – June 8, 2021 - Small Caps Breaking Out? Lots of conference calls again today so again please excuse any typos or missed content.  Rest of the week should be better. Small caps had another strong today, again led by the growthier variety, with the RUT up 1%, Naz third of a percent, while NDX and SPX were ever so slightly green. Style box broadly consistent.  Major Market Technicals Again, only thing to note today is RUT which continues to look very good technically and with today's push moved to within striking distance of its ATH.  Momentum looks very strong and technicals look very good.  My money is on it doing it soon. SPX Sector Flag SPX sector flag improved a bit today with six green sectors (four yesterday) but none up over 1% again (discr was right there though).  None down more than 1% (one yesterday).  Also much less defensive tone today then yesterday. SPX Sector Technicals Not much to note on the sector charts.  RE and ...
Read more

Daily Summary – March 5, 2021 - We got a rally, now what?

Image
     Daily Summary – March 5, 202  - We got a rally, now what? I ended last night with: "while I certainly wouldn't be going all in tomorrow, I've definitely been picking, and would not at all be surprised to see a strong day.  But right now it seems like rates are the story so what I'll be watching is how bond traders react to the payrolls number."   Taking the second first, bond traders reacted pretty much how you'd expect to a huge jobs beat (which was actually even better in hindsight considering how the weather likely influenced jobs in construction and other areas) with the 10-yr yield moving up 30 basis points rapidly (although below levels it had reached in the overnight session) right to the 1.6% level where for whatever reason (short covering?) it reversed (at 9.45am) and while it stayed over yday's levels for most of the session finished almost unchanged. On the first (the strong day prediction) it started out that way with stocks moving up ...
Read more