US Philadelphia Fed Mfg Business Outlook Jan 26.5 (est 11.8; prevR 9.1; prev 11.1)

 US Philadelphia Fed Mfg Business Outlook Jan 26.5 (est 11.8; prevR 9.1; prev 11.1)

Whoa, very strong Philly Fed mfg with current activity pushing up towards recovery highs, and outlook also improving strongly to 52.8. Responses were 1/11-1/19/21.

Here was the intro:

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased notably this month and remained positive for the eighth consecutive month. The survey’s future indexes remained at high readings and continue to indicate that firms expect growth over the next six months.

Specifically, new orders up to 30 from 2, highest in 3 mos, shipments 22.7 from 11.7, employment to 22.5 from 5.5, 7th month of positive numbers, workweek up 3 to 18.6.  

Future activity (6 mos out) rose to 52.8 from 43.1, although future new orders, shipments, and employment were all either flat or down slightly. Future cap ex though increased 12 points to 35.4.

Cont'ing the ST inflation theme, prices both paid and rec'd are spiking with prices paid up 21 pts to 45.4 and prices rec'd also up 21 pts to 36.6.

Special questions this month were interesting:

-Excluding seasonal effects, over past several months how would you characterize underlying demand - 63.6% reported increasing demand, 18% decreasing.

-How will 1Q21 production compare to 1Q20 - 69% exp'd an increase, 24% a decrease.

-How will you increase production - 51% hire workers, 23% increase hours, 20% increase productivity.