Initial Jobless Claims(SA) for week ending Feb. 20: -111K to 730K vs. 815K consensus, 841K prior (revised from 861K).

    

    • Initial Jobless Claims(SA) for week ending Feb. 20: -111K to 730K vs. 815K consensus, 841K prior (revised from 861K).
    • Initial PUI claims -61k to 452k.
    • Four-week moving average for week ending Feb. 20 was 808K, down 20.5K from the previous week's average of 828K.
    • The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 710.3K, an decrease of 131.7K (or 15.6%) from the previous week.
    • Continuing jobless claims (delayed one week) of 4.419M is down from 4.520M and higher than 4.467M consensus.
  • The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending January 30 was 19M, an increase of -+701K from the previous week almost all coming from Pandemic claims recipients with UI claims falling around -137K between regular and extended benefits.



I will continue to report jobless claims although it appears from both anecdotes and reporting anomalies (Ohio had a massive increase in pandemic claims last week) that there is more and more fraud being discovered, so I am really starting to discount it.  I know first hand as someone put a claim in (for my company) in my name (I know, good grief). 

Good news is we saw decreases both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted in basically all areas (UI and pandemic) as well as total UI recipients (including extended benefits).  So these are all positives.  Pandemic claims remain elevated (although down from last week's huge spike) but I have a feeling that's where all this fraud comes in.  So take all of this with a big grain of salt.  












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