Initial Jobless Claims(SA) for week ending Feb. 20: -111K to 730K vs. 815K consensus, 841K prior (revised from 861K).

    

    • Initial Jobless Claims(SA) for week ending Feb. 20: -111K to 730K vs. 815K consensus, 841K prior (revised from 861K).
    • Initial PUI claims -61k to 452k.
    • Four-week moving average for week ending Feb. 20 was 808K, down 20.5K from the previous week's average of 828K.
    • The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 710.3K, an decrease of 131.7K (or 15.6%) from the previous week.
    • Continuing jobless claims (delayed one week) of 4.419M is down from 4.520M and higher than 4.467M consensus.
  • The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending January 30 was 19M, an increase of -+701K from the previous week almost all coming from Pandemic claims recipients with UI claims falling around -137K between regular and extended benefits.



I will continue to report jobless claims although it appears from both anecdotes and reporting anomalies (Ohio had a massive increase in pandemic claims last week) that there is more and more fraud being discovered, so I am really starting to discount it.  I know first hand as someone put a claim in (for my company) in my name (I know, good grief). 

Good news is we saw decreases both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted in basically all areas (UI and pandemic) as well as total UI recipients (including extended benefits).  So these are all positives.  Pandemic claims remain elevated (although down from last week's huge spike) but I have a feeling that's where all this fraud comes in.  So take all of this with a big grain of salt.  












Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Neil's Morning Update - 12/27/21

Image
Neil's Morning Update - 12/27/21 Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). As are reminder, this is a free blog I put out to try to help people get information, so no editors, etc. A small glossary.   SPX = S&P 500 Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks) DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)). MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = 14-day Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like)
Read more

US New Homes Sales Nov: 744K (est 770K; prev 745K; prevR 662K) - New home sales come in under expectations due to huge October revisions

Image
US New Homes Sales Nov: 744K (est 770K; prev 745K; prevR 662K)  - US New Home Sales (M/M) Nov: 12.4% (est 3.4%; prev 0.4%; prevR –8.4%) Microsoft Word - newressales_auto_text.docx (census.gov) As always big h/t to Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) for the charts and helpful analysis.  He's a go to follow on Twitter for all things housing.   After October numbers were revised down significantly (by over -10%), November new home sales got back to where October was originally reported, they came in well above expectations in terms of m/m growth but well under in terms of number of houses sold.  Specifically, October was revised down from 745k homes sold on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to 662k and November came in at 744k (estimates were for 770k)  As we're lapping the start of the pandemic boom, y/y down significantly (-14.0%).  But we continue to remain well above 2019 levels.   Median prices, which had increased to record high levels in October moved higher to $416.9k.
Read more

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: +9 vs. +25 consensus and +27.3 prior - Dallas Fed Mfg comes in well below expectations as supply chains and prices constrain new orders and shipments

Image
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: +9 vs. +25 consensus and +27.3 prior. August Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (for Texas region) comes in similar to other Fed surveys other than Richmond, well under expectations and the July read, but still firmly in positive territory.  In the case of Texas, new orders and shipments drove most of the decline with those indicators falling by double digits (although still coming in well above survey historical averages).  Based on the comments and the fact that backlogs edged up, it sounds like despite orders falling there is more than enough business.  It is servicing that business that is the issue.  In that regard prices and wages remained very high.  But the capacity constraints and high prices did result in outlooks falling by double digits both for current conditions and six months out.  They did remain as did the other indicators firmly in positive territory.  Full table at the end.  Here was the commentary from the report: Texas factory activity
Read more