Initial Jobless Claims week ending Jul 24: -24K to 400K vs. 390K consensus, 424K prior (revised from 416K) - Initial claims improve but benefits recipients increase - details

 

Initial Jobless Claims week ending Jul 24: -24K to 400K vs. 390K consensus, 424K prior (revised from 416K).  Non-SA 344.6K, an increase of 66,591 (or 16.2%) from the previous week..

PUI claims -15K to 95K.

Four-week moving average was 394.5K, up 8K from the previous week's average of 386.5K.

Continuing jobless claims seasonally adjusted (one week delayed) of 3.269M higher than 3.262M prior and higher with 3.196M consensus.  Non-SA fell by 28k to 3.247M.

Total receiving benefits in all programs (two weeks delayed) was 13.156M, +582K.



Headline (seasonally adjusted) jobless claims ticked back down after last week's big rise (which was revised even higher) coming in right at 400k above estimates for 390k.  But as seasonality was expecting a decrease, taking out adjustments, the net number was a healthy -66k to 345k around the lowest levels we've seen post-pandemic.  

The 4-week moving average of initial claims remains near post-pandemic lows.  Pandemic claims fell back under 100k to 95k.  Continuing claims, which are one week removed, were basically flat on the adjusted number, but did fall un-adjusted by 28k.  The real disappointment was in total receiving benefits, which is two weeks delayed, which had dropped nearly 10% (-1.262M) last month, which gave almost half of that back increasing by 582k to 13.156M, with 133k coming from increase in regular state claims, 212k from pandemic claims, and 245k from extended benefits.   We had seen that really starting to move downward, so hopefully this is a one-week blip.

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