US JOLTS Job Openings May: 9209K (est 9325K; prev R 9193K) - Record difference between openings and hires - details

     

US JOLTS Job Openings May: 9209K (est 9325K; prev R 9193K)


May job openings (the most frequently cited number from the JOLTS report (but only one of the impt things from it) increased modestly from April levels but missed estimates remaining near the highest level in survey history (dating back to 2000).  



As always, have to caveat all of this with the fact that these are seasonally adjusted so that can really throw things off particularly as to individual sectors. Interesting to see quits decline, especially since saw them increasing in the June employment report, but they did remain historically high at 2.5%.  Layoffs and discharges hit a record low.



From the report:

The job openings level changed little at 9.2 million. The job openings rate was unchanged at 6.0 percent. Job openings increased in other services (+109,000), state and local government education (+46,000), and educational services (+35,000). The number of job openings decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-80,000); state and local government, excluding education (-56,000); and federal government (-17,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all four regions.

The number and rate of hires changed little at 5.9 million and 4.1 percent, respectively. Hires decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-56,000) and in federal government (-10,000). The number of hires decreased in the Northeast region.

The quits level and rate decreased to 3.6 million and 2.5 percent, respectively. Quits decreased in a number of industries with the largest decreases in professional and business services (-181,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-46,000); and durable goods manufacturing (-25,000). The number of quits decreased in the Northeast and South regions.



The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed at 1.4 million. The rate was also little changed at 0.9 percent, a series low. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in educational services (-21,000). Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all four regions.

Overall, as always, JOLTS is a couple of months behind, so it normally just reaffirms mostly what we already know, but does give us some more granular detail on a few things. I don't think there's any question at this point, but it does reaffirm that the issue with job gains isn't demand.  It's good that openings remain high, though, indicating the underlying economy is functioning at a high level.  But we really do need to see that hires line moving higher.  The distance between the yellow and blue lines in the first chart is the most in history.



To see more content, including summaries of major economic reports and my morning and nightly updates go to https://sethiassociates.blogspot.com


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