Initial Jobless Claims week ending Sep 25th seasonally adjusted: +11K to 362K vs. 335K consensus, 351K prior. Non-SA -8K to 298K. - seasonally adjusted claims tick up but non-SA fall as do continuing and huge drop in total rec'ing benefits - details

Initial Jobless Claims week ending Sep 25th seasonally adjusted: +11K to 362K vs. 335K consensus, 351K prior.  Non-SA -8K to 298K.

PUI claims +2K to 17K.

Four-week moving average of initial claims (SA) was 340K, up 4,250 from the previous week's average of 335.75K.

Continuing jobless claims (one week delayed) of 2.802M, -18K lower than 2.820M prior and 2.8M consensus.  Non-SA -49K to 2.461M. 

Total receiving benefits in all programs (two weeks delayed) was 5.027M, -6.223K.





While seasonally adjusted claims moved up this week, non-seasonally fell modestly.  I think you know my feelings that seasonal adjustments while we're still dealing with pandemic impacts can be misleading, but even then non-adjusted claims only decreased by -8k after increasing a big 40k last week.  While last week could be chalked up to Hurricane Ida impacts to some extent, if that was the explanation you'd have thought we'd get a bigger decrease, as it would seem those should mostly be past at this point.  So not quite sure what's going on.  Of course, as I've also noted, we are back to "average" levels of claims so it might just be noise.  

Regardless, SA claims were up for a third week by 11k after rising 16k last week and 20k the week before that.  Non-adjusted claims noted below did fall back below the 300k mark.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims ticked up modestly off post-pandemic lows.  Even though pandemic insurance expired a few weeks ago, we still are getting pandemic claims, this week 17k.  

Continuing claims, which are one-week delayed, decreased both adjusted and non-adjusted.  Adjusted they were -18k and unadjusted -49k.  That puts them at 2.802M and 2.461M respectively. 

Total receiving benefits had a massive -6.2M drop off all from the pandemic programs (although they still have around 2M people in them.   

In all not the greatest report, but non-adjusted and continuing claims did fall.  We'll have to see the fallout from the 6M people who have lost benefits when we get September reports next month.  Hopefully the impact won't be too bad, and hopefully we'll see claims get back to the post-pandemic lows soon.  

To see more content, including summaries of most major U.S. economic reports and my morning and nightly updates go to https://seekingalpha.com/user/15085872/instablogs for more recent or https://sethiassociates.blogspot.com for the full history.












Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Neil's Morning Update - 12/27/21

Image
Neil's Morning Update - 12/27/21 Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). As are reminder, this is a free blog I put out to try to help people get information, so no editors, etc. A small glossary.   SPX = S&P 500 Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks) DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)). MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = 14-day Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like)
Read more

Neil's Morning Update - 12/30/21 - moving to Substack

Image
Neil's Morning Update - 12/30/21 Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). As are reminder, this is a free blog I put out to try to help people get information, so no editors, etc. A small glossary.   SPX = S&P 500 Naz = Nasdaq Composite NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz) RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks) DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)). MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator) RSI = 14-day Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like)
Read more

US New Homes Sales Nov: 744K (est 770K; prev 745K; prevR 662K) - New home sales come in under expectations due to huge October revisions

Image
US New Homes Sales Nov: 744K (est 770K; prev 745K; prevR 662K)  - US New Home Sales (M/M) Nov: 12.4% (est 3.4%; prev 0.4%; prevR –8.4%) Microsoft Word - newressales_auto_text.docx (census.gov) As always big h/t to Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) for the charts and helpful analysis.  He's a go to follow on Twitter for all things housing.   After October numbers were revised down significantly (by over -10%), November new home sales got back to where October was originally reported, they came in well above expectations in terms of m/m growth but well under in terms of number of houses sold.  Specifically, October was revised down from 745k homes sold on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to 662k and November came in at 744k (estimates were for 770k)  As we're lapping the start of the pandemic boom, y/y down significantly (-14.0%).  But we continue to remain well above 2019 levels.   Median prices, which had increased to record high levels in October moved higher to $416.9k.
Read more