Neil's Morning Update - 12/27/21

Neil's Morning Update - 12/27/21

Please excuse typos.  Mornings are tilted more international, evenings more U.S.  Continuing to try to make this more digestible for those who are not as familiar with the markets, lingo, etc.  Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, they are appreciated.  Also, I don't discuss crypto extensively as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to talk intelligently on the subject (and there are plenty of other sources for that). As are reminder, this is a free blog I put out to try to help people get information, so no editors, etc.

A small glossary.  

SPX = S&P 500

Naz = Nasdaq Composite

NDX = Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks in the Naz)

RUT = Russell 2000 (smaller stocks)

DMA = Daily Moving Average (the moving average over the given time period (20, 50, 100, 200 days normally)).

MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence (basically a trend indicator)

RSI = 14-day Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like)

Also, on my charts, the lines are 20-DMA (green), 21-DEMA (red), 50-DMA (purple), 100-DMA (blue), 200-DMA (brown)

Source abbreviations: BBG = Bloomberg; WSJ = Wall Street Journal; RTRS = Reuters; SA = Seeking Alpha; HR = Heisenberg Report 

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Global stocks continued to be in the holiday spirit this morning carrying over from gains in Europe on Friday (US was closed) with both European shares and US futures in the green as we enter the first day of the "Santa Rally" period.  Asia closed mixed.  In the US the SPX, NDX, and RUT futures are up around 0.33, 0.47, and 0.14% respectively.  Commodities are mixed, the dollar is up, bonds are around flat levels.

I'm not one for making a lot of forecasts/predictions for how the upcoming year will go.  I do believe in having longer and intermediate term views that guide your decision making process, but they should be constantly evolving, and anyone trying to guess how 2022 will actually turn out at this point is doing just that, guessing (I'd love to see the piece from Dec 2020 that predicted 68 new all-time highs for the SPX to go along with a 1.5% 10-year, CPI at nearly 7%, a newly hawkish Fed, and the year ending at the highs despite a vaccine-evading Covid variant that had cases hitting new records globally).

That said, I'll try to intersperse some nuggets about what people are saying.  Sam Stovall was on BBG last week and noted, first that after a 20%+ year the average return is 10.4% the following year.  So that's a positive.  But he also noted that the third year of a bull market is generally one of the weakest with low single digit returns on average.  Similarly, the second year of a Presidential cycle is generally not great and comes with it an increase in volatility of 40%.  I'm hoping that isn't what we see, but with the Fed also starting a rate hike cycle, I wouldn't be shocked to see elevated volatility next year.

Here's the SPX futures this morning. Just under intraday record high.  Daily technicals continue to improve.

 In U.S. corporate news (Argus):

U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 21.07, -0.31): -1.5% after thousands of flights were cancelled over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day due to staffing issues related to COVID-19. GoDaddy (GDDY 79.25, +3.25): +4.3% on news that Starboard Value is aiming to take a "sizeable" stake in the company, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Cigna (CI 227.00, +1.11): +0.5% after reaffirming its FY21 EPS guidance. CNH Industrial (CNHI 19.40, +0.51): +2.7% after the stock was resumed with an Overweight rating at Morgan Stanley.

As Helene Meisler's poll shows her Twitter followers are quite bullish for a Santa Rally.  This is the 5th most bullish reading of the year.

And such a spread has generally been more right than wrong.

As Brian Gilmartin updates on earnings trends.  As we're now basically in between earnings seasons (the last one was basically over a week ago and the next one doesn't start for a couple weeks) revisions will be modest until we get into the next earnings season (second week of January).  This week they fell a touch.  This brought the earnings yield down some.  Here's the highlights:

• The forward 4-quarter estimate fell to $216.08 this week versus last week’s $216.90. In two weeks, when investors see the “forward 4-quarter estimate” roll from Q4 ’21-Q3 ’22, to what is basically calendar 2022 estimates (Q1 ’22-Q4 ’22), the market today is telling us that the forward 4-quarter estimate will be $222 and change. Here’s the data:
• The P/E ratio on the forward estimate is 21.87x while the P/E on the 2022 estimate today is 20x.
• After last week’s rally, with the S&P 500 +1.22%, the S&P 500 earnings yield fell to 4.57% from the previous week’s 4.69%.
• The 3rd quarter ’21 bottom-up estimate will not likely hit $55 per share, which I thought it would. It will end the quarter near where it sits today, in the $53.72 area. 

But Q421 (which will be reported starting in a couple of weeks) ticked up which is positive.

Asia

Major equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region that were open began the week on a mostly flat note with markets in Australia, Hong Kong, and New Zealand closed for Christmas. Japan's Nikkei: -0.4% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1% India's Sensex: +0.5% South Korea's Kospi: -0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: CLOSED.

In news, South Australia is tightening its coronavirus restrictions while Singapore is adjusting its approach to managing omicron cases and will issue a seven-day health risk warning to close contacts of the variant rather than quarantining them for 10 days, the Ministry of Health said in a statement. The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions for the December meeting showed expectations for CPI to rise moderately into positive territory in the short run. Japan's industry ministry will hold an auction to sell around 630kb of oil from its strategic reserve on February 9. The People's Bank of China pledged to support the real economy with more "proactive" policy tools.

In economic data, Japanese housing starts and construction missed while retail sales beat.  Singapore industrial production also beat estimates.

China's November Industrial Profit 38.0% YTD (last 42.2%)

Japan's November Housing Starts 3.7% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 10.4%) and November Construction Orders 0.0% yr/yr (last 2.1%). November Retail Sales 1.9% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 0.9%)

Japan’s retail sales increased for a third straight month, as easing virus concerns fueled spending by consumers before the emergence of the omicron variant.

• 
  Spending on clothing rose more than 7%, as did outlays for motor vehicles
• Sales of food and drink rose 0.6% from October
• Spending on fuel fell 2.9%
• Compared with a year ago, retail sales increased 1.9%

Singapore's November Industrial Production 2.3% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 2.4%); 14.6% yr/yr (expected 13.4%; last 17.0%)

Over the weekend, China’s central bank pledged greater support for the real economy, and said it will make monetary policy more forward-looking and targeted.  BBG.

There will be "more proactive” use of monetary policy tools to "increase support for the real economy," the People’s Bank of China said in a statement on Saturday. It added that there will be “good use” of the monetary policy tools’ quantitative and structural functions, referring to the adjustment of liquidity in the market and policies targeted at certain groups.  

Monetary policy should also "maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, keep the money supply and the growth rate of social financing basically in line with the nominal economic growth rate, keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, enhance the resilience of economic development, and stabilize the macroeconomic market," it said in the statement.

The monetary policy committee held a meeting on Friday that was chaired by Governor Yi Gang. The central bank also reiterated its aim to promote the property sector’s “healthy” growth and protect home buyers’ rights, as well as work to better meet housing demand.

 The PBOC will also keep the macro leverage ratio, or the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio, basically steady to stabilize the economy. It repeated the Central Economic Work Conference’s evaluation that the domestic economy is facing three shocks including shrinking demand, disrupted supply and weakened expectations.  "The global epidemic is still evolving, the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain and domestic economic development is facing the triple threat of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations,” officials said

The central bank on Saturday said it will implement re-lending programs that support small businesses and companies in reducing emissions. It will also guide banks to offer greater support to high-tech firms, small companies and private enterprises as well as green projects. The PBOC said it will also encourage lenders to increase loans to the manufacturing sector.

Analysts expect more easing to come next year, including further cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and potentially a reduction in policy interest rates, as the ongoing property slowdown likely continues to drag on growth next year. Authorities also signaled more fiscal support in early 2022 to drive investment and infrastructure building.

 “The marginal easing conducted so far has had an effect, but the piecemeal approach is not enough to sustain the improvement and turn the overall momentum around now that there are also signs of a cooling jobs market,” according to SocGen’s Wei Yao and Michelle Lam who expect a half percent in RRR cuts in early 2022 and 10 basis points of cuts to the policy rate.

And on Friday, China set a weaker-than-forecast yuan fixing for a record 15th day on Friday as it seeks to curb currency gains that threaten to undermine its economic recovery.  BBG.

The central bank set the reference rate at 6.3692 per dollar, a shade weaker than the average estimate of 6.3688 in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and traders. That’s the most extended series of lower-than-expected yuan fixings since the surveys began in 2018, based on instances when the rate is even a fraction below the estimate.

China’s cabinet this week vowed to keep the yuan basically stable as part of policy support for imports and exports, Xinhua News Agency reported Thursday.  The yuan has outperformed all its emerging-market peers this year, strengthening 2.5% against the dollar, amid robust export growth and inflows of funds into the nation’s bond market. The currency has also been aided by pro-growth policy signals, with the Communist Party’s annual Central Economic Work Conference this month pledging to ensure stability and keep monetary settings flexible next year.

“The PBOC will continue to guide the yuan’s rate lower to prevent it from breaching 6.35 per dollar,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong. The authorities may rely on the fixing in the near term to achieve that, he said. 

And on Saturday in the statement discussed above they also hit on the exchange rate targeting “deepening the reform of exchange rate marketization, strengthening the flexibility of the RMB, guiding enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of ‘risk neutrality,’ strengthening anticipation management, grasping the balance between internal and external equilibrium, and maintaining the basic stability of the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.”

As Evergrande says it has retarted work on "more than 90%" of its residential projects. WSJ.

Troubled property developer China Evergrande Group EGRNF -10.55% said construction work has resumed at more than 90% of its stalled residential projects, adding that it has picked up the pace of delivering apartments promised to home buyers across the country.
Evergrande said Sunday night that more than 80% of its suppliers of materials and decorative services have resumed cooperating and that it has signed thousands of new contracts with various suppliers. At the end of August, the developer disclosed that construction had been suspended at some projects after it fell behind on payments. And by October, hundreds of Evergrande’s unfinished developments were affected by work stoppages.

With just a few days to go before the end of 2021, Evergrande said it intends to deliver 39,000 homes in 115 projects to buyers across China in December. It compared that to its completion of fewer than 10,000 units in each of the preceding three months.

Despite this, Evergrande still has many more commitments to fulfill, and its debt crisis remains unresolved. The 25-year-old developer used to be one of the country’s largest by contracted sales and is on the hook to deliver units to more than one million people. Many buyers made large down payments on unfinished flats, expecting to take ownership of them in a few years. 

Europe

As of 8 am Eastern, major European indices trade near their flat lines while markets in the U.K. remain closed for Boxing Day. On Friday, UK stocks though did hit the highest level since the pandemic.  STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% Germany's DAX: +0.2% U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED France's CAC 40: +0.2% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.4% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%.

Gazprom did not book export capacity for the seventh consecutive day, serving as a reminder that the region continues dealing with a low supply of energy (although natural gas prices have fallen sharply during this time as noted below). Reuters reported that talks between Intel and Italy about establishing a chip packaging plant are advancing. 

On Friday, European equities climbed to the highest level in a month as the latest coronavirus studies fueled optimism that economic growth can withstand omicron risks. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1% by the close in London, posting the biggest three-day gain since November 2020. 20 out of 20 Stoxx 600 sectors rose.  

As despite Omicron, European flights have remained less than 10% below 2019 levels.

And on Friday Kosovo became the first European country to start rolling blackouts due to the power crunch.

But some relief appears to be on the way in the form of prices (at least nat gas) coming back down off their most recent spike into record territory.

But for how long?

Commodities/Currencies/Bonds

Bonds - Some curve flattening this morning with 2-year bond yields up three basis point at 0.71%, while the 10-year is flat at 1.49%.  

Dollar (DXY) - After falling below last week, testing the underside of the 20-DMA again this morning.  Currently at $96.18.  Remains in intermediate-term uptrend.  Daily technicals negative.  Technicals would indicate further softening from here.

VIX - A little surprisingly trading higher this morning but remaining under 20 at 18.69.  

Crude (/CL) - Down this morning with negative headlines on flight cancellations and Japanese SPR release.  Also is having trouble with the 100-DMA.  Currently at $73.44 WTI. Daily technicals are positive.

Also, the prompt timespread -- the gap between the two nearest contracts -- has returned to a bullish pattern in recent days after flipping briefly into a bearish contango (negative) structure last week. On Brent, the spread was 45 cents a barrel in backwardation today, compared with as much as 10 cents in contango about a week ago.

More details on the Japanese SPR sale.

TOKYO, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Japan’s industry ministry said on Monday it will hold an auction on Feb. 9 to sell about 100,000 kilolitres, or 628,980 barrels, of crude oil from its national reserve as a part of a U.S.-led coordinated release of oil reserve to cool rising prices.
The supply, to be taken from its Shibushi tank in southwestern Japan, will become available to the winning bidder on March 20 or later, it said in a statement.
Japan’s government said last month that it would release “a few hundred thousand kilolitres” of oil in response to a U.S. request, and the sale would be done as part of a switch in the composition of the types of oil held in the national reserve.

“This is the first round of the planned releases and we will conduct more auctions when we are ready and while we closely watch the international energy markets,” an official at the ministry told Reuters.

As analysts see continued issues with Nigeria and Angola production in 2022 (Africa's two largest suppliers).  Argus.

Nigeria — Africa's largest oil producer — is likely to continue battling unplanned crude production outages in 2022, as international investments starts to wane.

Disruption to crude production infrastructure has been a long running issue for Nigeria, but the scale of the problem is worsening, and some buyers are losing trust in the country's supply reliability. Nigeria's output averaged 1.41mn b/d between January-November 2021, down from 1.63mn b/d over the same months in 2020.

Production outages in Nigeria have had a long-lasting effect with streams unable to recover to pre-shutdown output levels, and the country falling short of its monthly Opec+ production quotas throughout the year. Although state-owned NNPC managing director Mele Kyari said in November he expects the country's output to return to Opec+ quota levels by the end of 2021, it seems very unlikely as, according to Argus estimates, production remained 160,000 b/d below the output ceiling in November. 

Nigeria's production issues might worsen, with some international investors signalling they could withdraw from the country. Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden said the firm is in talks with the Nigerian government after concluding its onshore oil position in the Niger delta is no longer worth the risk, because of persistent incidents of pipeline sabotage and crude theft. ExxonMobil is in talks with Nigerian oil firm Seplat Energy to sell its shallow-water assets in the country. The major is also in talks with Africa-focus independent Savannah Energy to sell its stake in the Doba oil project in Chad.

A lack of investment combined with a natural decline at maturing fields has also meant that crude output in Angola — Africa's second largest oil producer — continued to fall in 2021. And, although promising, the start-up of new projects in 2021 is unlikely to stem the country's production decline in 2022. The Angolan parliament approved a 2022 budget proposal assuming daily crude production average of 1.148mn b/d, which is 72,000 b/d below the 1.22mn b/d planned in the 2021 budget. Angola's crude output averaged 1.11mn b/d in January-November 2021, according to Argus estimates, down by 13pc compared with the same period in 2020, and by 20pc from January-November 2019. And similarly to Nigeria, Angola has failed to produce at Opec+ target levels throughout 2021.

As Ecuador outages have 800-900kbd out right now.

And Russia embarks on a massive oil project targeting 2mbd (in 2030).

MOSCOW, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Russia has placed its bets on its biggest oil project since the fall of the Soviet Union to push aside rival Middle Eastern, West African and U.S. grades in core European markets and provide much-needed revenues.

The Rosneft-led project Vostok Oil in Russia's new northern oilfields is expected to produce and export as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 - a level matched by the Samotlor West Siberian field in the 1970s and 80s.  The production, comparable with the entire North Sea oil market of between some 1.8 million and 2 million bpd, will come onstream in stages.  As North Sea oil production from mature fields has declined, European refiners have purchased light sweet barrels from outside the region. Traders said they could well favour the new Vostok crude, provided it is of the expected quality, over the Middle Eastern, African and U.S. grades they have been buying because transport costs would be lower.

Vostok Oil's loading terminal, the Bukhta Sever, in the Yenisei Bay on the Taymyr peninsula will ship 600,000 bpd when finished in 2024, or around 15% of Russia's total and equal to current loadings from Russia's largest Baltic sea port of Primorsk.

The year 2024 is when President Vladimir Putin, a close ally of Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, is expected to run for re-election.  Any revenue boost would be especially welcome to help finance a $400 billion state spending plan Putin aims will make Russia one of the world’s top economies by the end of this decade.

As JCPOA talks resume.

Dec 27 (Reuters) - Iran’s main focus in nuclear talks that resume in Austria on Monday will be the lifting of all U.S. sanctions in a verifiable process that guarantees Tehran’s unhindered ability to export its oil, the foreign minister said.

Negotiations with world powers to salvage Iran’s 2015 nuclear accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), are to resume in Vienna at 1800 (1700 GMT), state media reported.

“The most important issue for us is to reach a point where, firstly, Iranian oil can be sold easily and without hindrance,” Iranian media quoted Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian as saying. “The money from the oil (sales) is to be deposited as foreign currency in Iranian banks - so we can enjoy all the economic benefits stipulated in Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.” 

Nat Gas (/NG) - Up this morning as it continues to push against the still rising 200-DMA (although now now has the falling 20-DMA (green line) coming in as additional resistance). Currently at $3.87.  Daily technicals mixed.  

Gold (/GC) - Down a little this morning but remains over that cluster of resistance.  Currently at $1809.  Daily technicals positive.  

Copper (/HG) - Up a little remaining just over the 50-DMA.  Daily technicals positive.  Seems it has a good setup to go higher. 

US Data

No data releases today.

Did see something on the Chicago Fed which does a weekly Retail Trade index (I subscribed so I can update going forward).  It was down for a second week in a row.  So we might continue to see softening in retail sales in December (although see Mastercard data in the Misc section).

In the second week of December, the Weekly Index of Retail Trade decreased 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis after decreasing 1.5% in the previous week. For the month of December, retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) are projected to decrease 1.3% from November on a seasonally adjusted basis and to decrease 1.8% when adjusted for inflation.

Misc.

Random stuff:

As if your flight got cancelled over the weekend you certainly weren't alone.  BBG.

Airlines’ U.S. flight cancellations approached 2,800 for the Christmas weekend, disrupting travel on one of the busiest periods of the year as the omicron-fueled wave of Covid cases triggered air-crew shortages. 

The situation eased a bit Sunday after Saturday’s pullbacks erased at least 12% of the schedule at Delta Air Lines Inc., United Airlines Holdings Inc. and JetBlue Airways Corp., according to data tracker FlightAware.com. JetBlue was the only one of the trio reporting 10% of its schedule canceled on Sunday, with the other two at 5% or less. The U.S. cuts on Christmas Day alone totaled more than 900.
The disruptions may extend into the New Year’s holiday weekend, he said. Still, U.S. air travel could face less stress if the federal government shortens the required quarantine for industry workers who test positive with the virus.  The Centers for Disease Control on Thursday reduced isolation time for vaccinated health-care workers who contract the virus. Airlines for America, the trade association representing North American carriers, wrote to the CDC asking for the 10-day quarantine period for fully vaccinated individuals to be cut to “no more than five days.” 

Globally, the tally of dropped flights was about 6,400 trips for Friday through Sunday, according to FlightAware. Cancellations ranked among the highest at Xi’an Xianyang International Airport, in the western Chinese city where the government punished local officials for failing to curb an outbreak that led to the biggest lockdown since Covid emerged in Wuhan. Nearly a third of the flights departing from the airport were canceled Friday and Saturday, according to FlightAware. 

As Mastercard says holiday spending (11/1-12/24) jumped 8.5% from 2020.  BBG.

U.S. holiday sales jumped 8.5% from last year as consumers spent more money on clothes, jewelry and electronics, a report from Mastercard SpendingPulse showed. 

Sales grew across the board, both in stores and online, for the holiday season defined as Nov. 1 to Dec. 24. Consumers started searching for gifts earlier than usual with supply chains roiling retailers and stores offering more promotions to jumpstart the holiday shopping season. 

“Shoppers were eager to secure their gifts ahead of the retail rush, with conversations surrounding supply chain and labor supply issues sending consumers online and to stores in droves,” Steve Sadove, a senior adviser for Mastercard and former chief executive officer of Saks Inc., said in a statement Sunday.

Sales surged 47% for apparel, 32% for jewelry and 16% for electronics compared with 2020, with all three categories up at least 20% from their pre-pandemic levels in 2019 as well. Department stores saw a 21% jump from last year and gained 11% from two years ago.

Online shopping surged 11%, according to the report, which tracks retail sales across all payment types. E-commerce now accounts for roughly 21% of all holiday sales. 

Something to keep in mind when evaluating Covid hospitalization numbers - 40% of "hospitalizations" in NYC for Covid are because the person was there for something else but happened to have Covid.

As calls are mounting to cut Covid-19 quarantine periods for people who are vaccinated and no longer testing positive, especially essential workers. "The U.K. changed its quarantine rules on Wednesday, cutting the quarantine time to seven days for vaccinated people who twice test negative, to allow them to return to work faster. The CDC on Thursday issued new guidelines for healthcare workers, reducing their recommended isolation time. Some researchers and business leaders say a shorter timetable for all fully vaccinated people who have cleared their infections is supported by a growing body of research and rising numbers of vaccinations and rapid tests." (WSJ).

As more analysis builds behind a peak in Omicron in mid to late January.

As Jurrien Timmer notes that while earnings ratios (like CAPE) have very elevated readings, using cash flow (which is less subject to arbitrary rules about how you treat certain expenses or book revenues, etc.) shows things more in line.  This is a subject I've read a lot about but neglected covering in this blog, so I'll look to talk more about how the way we calculate earnings in and of itself creates a bias for lower numbers for technology and similar companies.  In short, current standards were written for an industrial world.

And despite increasing buybacks and dividends corporate cash levels remain near their highs.

And while industrial REIT's did well, self-storage was the place to be since the start of the pandemic.  WSJ.

Self-storage stocks have been big gainers since last year’s economic lockdown, outrunning e-commerce warehouses, rebounding malls and rental houses.

Investors dumped self-storage stocks when the pandemic hit, unaware that the business of leasing lockers was about to boom. Americans cleared out bedrooms and garages for home offices and gyms. Others packed up apartments and headed for Covid-19 cabins or home from campus. Businesses fearing shortages rented space to stash inventory. Availability dwindled and rents shot up. 

Since Feb 21, 2020, just before the pandemic tanked markets, self-storage shares in the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index have returned about 84% between price gains and dividend payments. That compares with a roughly 20% return on the broader real-estate investment trust index, which tracks the performance of 153 companies that own income-producing properties, from cell towers to timberland.

Industrial properties, data centers and McMansions also outperformed during the pandemic. But none nearly as much as self-storage. The four largest storage companies each reported record occupancy above 95% in the third quarter. Extra Space and Public Storage, with about 345 million square feet of space between them, were nearly 97% full. For many, it is easier to pay an ever-rising monthly bill than figure out what to do with grandma’s old dining set.

As Western powers said they will continue to recognize the currently installed Libyan government which technically expired on Friday when elections were supposed to have been held.  This is starting to look like it's going to get messy.

BENGHAZI, Libya, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Western powers said on Friday they would continue to recognise Libya's interim government after its presidential election was delayed, but called for a new polling date to be swiftly set.

The fate of the interim Government of National Unity (GNU), which was installed in March as part of a U.N.-backed peace process has become a main source of disagreement in the fallout over the collapse of the election.

The election was part of a U.N.-backed initiative that also involved setting up an interim government earlier this year as a step towards ending the decade of chaos and violence since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising against Muammar Gaddafi.

Earlier this week, Libya's parliament said Friday's planned presidential election would not go ahead, leaving the internationally-backed peace process in chaos and the fate of the interim government in doubt

 

To see more content, including summaries of most major U.S. economic reports and my morning and nightly updates go to https://sethiassociates.blogspot.com for the full history.