US DoE Crude Oil Inv (W/W) 24-Dec: -3576K (est -3233K; prev -4715K) - Massive -20mb draw across the petroleum complex (almost -50mb last three weeks)

EIA - Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending Dec 24, 2021 

US DoE Crude Oil Inv (W/W) 24-Dec: -3576K (est -3233K; prev -4715K)  
- Distillate: -1726K (est -59K; prev 396K)  
- Cushing: 1055K (prev 1463K)  
- Gasoline: -1459K (est -31K; prev 5533K) 
- Refinery Utilization: 0.1% (est 0.1%; prev -0.2%)


US crude inventories drew down for a fifth straight week in the week through December 24th, with a third straight draw (incl SPR) of over -4.9mb (last two weeks were over -6.5mb), drawing down by -4.9mb (incl a -1.4mb SPR release) on the back of better demand. That was slightly more than expected. Gasoline and distillates also drew more than expected. Also, all other products drew down (except fuel ethanol which was flat), including a second consecutive week of a large draw in "other oils" (which are blending components) (-6.9mb this week and -6.7mb last week) leading to a a huge -20.5mb net draw across the petroleum complex (if SPR is included) which comes after draws of -28.3mb the previous two weeks. Total inventories now at 1,884.6mb incl SPR. SPR stocks are at the lowest since 2002.

We did see Cushing, where WTI is calculated, build for a seventh week by 1.1mb. So there is a decent amount of breathing room now from the minimum storage levels (storage has to stay at or above 20mb or there can be issues with the ability to keep lines pressurized, etc.).

Crude - Production increased by 200kbd to 11.8mbd, which was the highest of the year. Net imports increased by 515kbd as imports increased by 565kbd (exports were -50kbd). Adjustment (basically an "equation balancer") was -631kbd. Refining usage increased a touch to 89.7% from 89.6% last week. That remains down from 91.3% a few months ago. Throughput fell by -115kbd to 15.703mbd. Crude inventories (excl SPR) are -7% below the 5-year average (was -8% last week).

Products - As noted all major petroleum categories drew down led by "other" oils (blending components) .  Gasoline now -6% below 5-yr avg (was -4% last week), distillates -14% (was -8%), and propane -10% below (was -8%).    

Demand - Demand bounced back this week by a solid +1.76mbd, more than this week in 2019.  Demand increased across all products with gasoline and propane leading the gains.  Reminder, these are at the wholesale (not retail) level.  4-week average of total demand is up 12.4 y/y.  

US implied oil demand (product supplied) rose by 1.764mbpd w/w to  22.218mbpd last week
w/w changes by product in kbpd
gasoline +738
jet fuel +130
distillate +229
residual fuel oil +66
propane/propylene +553
other oils +47

Here's total demand which was well above the same week in 2019 (although a lot of variability this time of the year.




Here are selected inventories.  Total inventories remain well below last 5 years.



And here's crude inventories.  Down to 2015 levels.



As always, a thank you to @staunovo for the charts and some of the text.  He is a great follow on Twitter for all things commodities.

To see more content, including summaries of many major U.S. economic reports and my morning and nightly updates go to https://sethiassociates.blogspot.com for the full history.

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