Initial Jobless Claims week ending Dec 18th seasonally adjusted: flat at 205K in-line with consensus and 205K prior (revised from 206K). Non-SA -12K to 254K - Neil's Summary

Initial Jobless Claims week ending Dec 18th seasonally adjusted: flat at 205K in-line with consensus and 205K prior (revised from 206K).  Non-SA -12K to 254K.

4-week moving average was 206.25K, a increase of 2.75K from the previous week's revised average.

Continuing jobless claims seasonally-adjusted (one week delayed) -8K to 1.859M vs. 1.867M prior and 1.820M consensus.  Non-SA +96K to 1.831M.

Total receiving benefits in all programs (two weeks delayed) was 2.138M, -320KK.

News Release (dol.gov)

After jumping around due to seasonal adjustments, seasonally adjusted initial claims week through Dec 11th were dead flat, remaining a little above 200k.  Non-adjusted claims fell by -12k to +254k.  As we know the pandemic screwed up many seasonal adjustments, so take all adjusted numbers with a grain of salt.  

But claims remain at very low levels, which makes sense in a job market with the largest ever spread between job openings and hires (per the most recent JOLTS report).  The 4-week moving average of initial claims increased a little but remained near multi-decade lows.  

Adjusted continuing claims, which are one-week delayed, fell a little while non-adjusted increased by a more substantial nearly 100k, so seasonal adjustments at work here somewhat.  Non-adjusted had been right at pre-pandemic levels (around 1.7M).

Total receiving benefits, which is two weeks delayed, continues to jump all of the over place, this week falling by -320k as over half of last week's addition of 403k "regular" claims (reminder these are not adjusted) fell back out.  This puts that total benefits number back towards the low end of the 2.1M-2.4M range we'd been for months outside of a dip below that last month.  We still have around 230k in pandemic programs where benefits expired three months ago.  It would seem total benefits should continue to move down at least until those pandemic claims are basically gone.  They did go down by -80k this week.  

Overall, I'd expect to see all these numbers bounce around near current levels with hopefully adjusted continuing claims and total receiving benefits pushing down to pre-pandemic levels.  We're already back to pre-pandemic levels on initial claims and very close in non-adjusted continuing claims, and I'd expect the other areas to continue to drift down.     

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